Inflation in Belize eased considerably following the global shocks of 2022, declining from 6.28% in 2022 to 4.39% in 2023, 3.29% in 2024, 1.1% for the full year 2025, and further to 0.04% year-on-year by January 2026. Despite this moderation, sustained increases in key categories, including food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.6% in 2024, 1.6% in 2025), housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (2.3%–2.0%), restaurants and accommodation (7.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025), and personal care (up to 2.5%), continued to weaken consumer purchasing power. Utilizing Laspeyres-based Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) alongside Central Bank reports, this study quantifies trends through descriptive statistics, category-weighted contribution analysis, and simulated household budget models. A representative low-to-middle-income household, allocating approximately 35–40% of expenditure to food and 25% to housing and utilities, experienced a cumulative real income decline of 8–12% since 2022. This decline prompted a reallocation of spending from discretionary items to essentials, increased vulnerability to debt, and heightened food insecurity, particularly in high-cost regions such as San Pedro. CPI computation formulas and inflation impact equations further highlight the country’s structural dependence on imports. The findings support the implementation of targeted subsidies, recalibration of the Household Budget Survey (HBS 2025/26), and wage indexation policies. Overall, the analysis highlights the disconnect between robust GDP growth (8.2% in 2024) and the persistent cost-of-living pressures experienced by households.
Keywords: inflation, cost of living, Belize CPI, household budgets, food prices, energy costs, purchasing power
Abbreviations: CPI (Consumer Price Index), SIB (Statistical Institute of Belize), HBS (Household Budget Survey), LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas), YoY (Year-over-Year), YTD (Year-to-Date)
