Nigeria’s political economy reached a critical inflexion point following the inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in May 2023. The administration swiftly implemented a sweeping stabilisation agenda, collectively termed Tinubunomics, encompassing the removal of long-standing petroleum subsidies, the unification of multiple official foreign exchange (FX) windows into a single market-determined regime, the tightening of monetary policy, and comprehensive tax reform. These measures, representing the most consequential structural adjustments in Nigeria’s economic history in over two decades, corrected fiscal distortions estimated to cost the federation over ₦4 trillion annually. While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank acknowledged the boldness of these reforms and their positive effects on macroeconomic credibility, investor confidence, and external reserves, their distributional consequences have been severe: inflation peaked at approximately 34.6 percent in late 2024, an estimated 31 million Nigerians were classified as acutely food insecure, multi-dimensional poverty affected approximately 63 percent of the population, and the World Bank estimated that over 54 percent of Nigerians now live below the international poverty line.
This paper argues that the stabilisation phase, while necessary, is insufficient as a terminal reform destination, and that the transition from stabilisation to productive prosperity requires a systematic, institutionally grounded Multi-Level Governance Framework (MLGF). The framework coordinates macroeconomic stewardship at the federal tier, industrial transformation at the state tier, and grassroots productivity enablement at the local government tier, within a cooperative multi-level governance architecture. Drawing on the Tinubu administration’s Renewed Hope Agenda, the African Development Bank’s Country Strategy Paper (2025–2030), IMF Article IV consultations (2024–2025), World Bank Nigeria Development Updates, and an extensive body of peer-reviewed scholarship on Nigerian fiscal federalism, industrial policy, energy reform, and digital economy development, the paper advances a three-phase transformation framework spanning 2026–2035: macroeconomic consolidation (2026–2027), industrial and infrastructure expansion (2027–2030), and knowledge-economy transition (2030–2035).
The framework integrates supply-side industrial policy, social protection architecture, power sector reform, food security intervention, digital economy strategy, and human capital development within a coherent multi-level institutional structure. It further proposes financing strategies anchored in domestic resource mobilisation, development finance, and public-private partnerships. The central thesis is that Nigeria must urgently transition from stabilisation-led macroeconomics to productivity-driven, inclusion-oriented development if reform gains are to be sustained and broadly shared. The paper contributes to scholarship on post-stabilisation political economy by operationalising multi-level governance theory in the specific developmental context of Africa’s largest economy.
Keywords: Nigeria economic transformation; multi-level governance; stabilisation policy; productive prosperity; fiscal federalism; industrial policy; Tinubunomics; post-stabilisation political economy; social protection; macroeconomic diversification; inclusive growth; domestic resource mobilisation
