This study examines the determinants of cabinet size across upper-middle-income countries using a quantitative, cross-sectional comparative approach. Drawing on a sample of 26 countries representing multiple global regions, the research analyzes how demographic, economic, and institutional factors shape the size of national executive cabinets. The study employs both descriptive statistics and multiple linear regression to evaluate the relationship between cabinet size (dependent variable) and three key independent variables: population size, gross domestic product (GDP), and political system. Logarithmic transformations of population and GDP are used to capture proportional effects and improve model performance.
The findings reveal that cabinet size varies substantially across countries, ranging from small executive structures of approximately 10 ministers to larger cabinets exceeding 35 members. Descriptive analysis shows that smaller states tend to maintain more compact cabinets, while larger and more economically complex countries exhibit expanded executive structures. The regression results indicate a moderate positive relationship between cabinet size and the explanatory variables (R = 0.483), with the model explaining approximately 23.3% of the variation in cabinet size. Among the predictors, GDP emerges as the strongest determinant, suggesting that economic complexity plays a critical role in shaping government structure. Population size also shows a positive but weaker influence, while the political system variable exhibits a limited and mixed effect.
The study further applies the estimated model to Belize, demonstrating that its predicted cabinet size of approximately 18 ministers aligns with its economic and demographic profile. Overall, the findings support the hypothesis that cabinet size is influenced by structural and institutional factors, particularly economic scale. The study contributes to the literature on comparative public administration by highlighting the importance of aligning executive structures with functional governance needs and provides a basis for future research incorporating additional institutional and fiscal variables.
Keywords: Upper-middle-income, Population size, Gross domestic product(GDP), Regression, Political system, Cross-sectional comparative approach, Logarithmic transformations
