This article examines why tourism-led economic growth in Belize from 2002 to 2019 failed to alleviate poverty. Utilizing national poverty headcount data for benchmark years (2002, 2009, 2018/2019) alongside real GDP and GDP per capita growth rates from World Bank sources, the study employs sub period growth comparisons, a shock-adjusted timeline, and an illustrative growth–poverty elasticity framework. Despite average annual GDP growth of 3.7% from 2002–2009 and 2.0% from 2010–2018, poverty rose from 33.5% to 52%. Key findings reveal: (I) modest or negative GDP per capita growth in key periods, with cumulative changes of +7.3% and -7.4% across sub periods; (ii) volatile tourism expansions prone to external shocks like hurricanes and the global financial crisis; and (iii) growth–poverty elasticities of +3.05 and -3.63, indicating weak or adverse distributional effects where poverty increased despite growth or amid contractions. Comparative benchmarks from Jamaica and global/regional studies highlight Belize’s outlier status: Jamaica’s semi-elasticity reached -2.2 (2013–2019), associating 1% per capita GDP growth with a 2.2 percentage point poverty decline. The results underscore that tourism-led growth in small, vulnerable economies like Belize is often insufficiently inclusive, with limited transmission to labour incomes, high economic leakages, and exposure to climatic and global disruptions. To enhance pro-poor outcomes, the paper recommends strengthening labour institutions, reducing leakages through local supply chains, expanding shock-responsive social protections, and adopting multidimensional wellbeing metrics beyond GDP. This study contributes to debates on “growth without poverty reduction” in tourism-dependent small open economies, emphasizing the need for resilient, equitable strategies that address structural vulnerabilities and inequality. (Word count: 298)
Keywords: Belize, tourism-led growth, poverty reduction, GDP growth, economic vulnerability, growth-poverty elasticity, inclusive development, Caribbean tourism
Abbreviations: GDP: Gross Domestic Product NSTMP: National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan GFC: Global Financial Crisis LDCs: Least Developed Countries UNWTO: United Nations World Tourism Organization BTB: Belize Tourism Board SIDS: Small Island Developing States MPI: Multidimensional Poverty Index
